2010년 5월 21일 금요일

US, the next Greece?

I found a great article analyzing today’s state of the economy of the US. Paul tried to provide a comparison between the US and Japan, and that today’s fears should be more focused on trying to fight against deflation, and not inflation.
Paul has been consistently arguing for more expansion of government spending since the crisis. Not only Paul, but also Barton Biggs maintained that, historically no central banks demonstrated any good measures to counter deflationary pressures; essentially, there are bigger risks from less stimulus packages, according to his account.
At first, it was quite confusing for me why there were both inflationary and deflationary impulses at the same time. With these huge several trillion dollars of monetary expansion, won’t there be massive inflation coming toward us? But, if we look into the numbers, it gives us different stories. Recently, 10-year Treasury bonds’ interest rates have been declining due to lack of confidence of the stock market; stock markets serves as a good indicator of the strengths of the real economy. If people perceive corporations’ earnings will be high in the near future, why would they head for low expected returns?
The other factors he used for his arguments are high unemployment rate and excess capacity; these are all precursors of deflation.
While there are lots of fear-mongering over the huge deficits and debt programs the government is planning and pursuing, the real problem that could pervasively affect the economy could be another “lost decade” in this planet; and that could be the US.

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